Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 44.009904 52.031418 60.879699 71.333538 83.314637 96.583917 112.358030
2024-10-06 32.923570 43.712525 56.809482 73.742538 94.904480 120.315997 152.958824
2024-10-13 25.006574 36.428052 51.379123 72.097090 99.729013 134.941287 182.771081
2024-10-20 22.441252 35.166506 52.830388 78.637741 114.777345 162.894640 230.961177
2024-10-27 17.480459 29.508582 47.221801 74.496431 114.554688 170.190796 251.995613
2024-11-03 15.449826 27.755163 46.785665 77.371165 124.047971 191.090649 292.711468
2024-11-10 14.064706 26.734603 47.210615 81.395507 135.351607 215.145184 339.305311
2024-11-17 12.766221 25.610540 47.251645 84.691513 145.656973 238.264920 385.846515
2024-11-24 11.170357 23.681266 45.671796 85.101711 151.329998 254.625389 423.131321
2024-12-01 9.402917 21.122504 42.648272 82.690048 152.101622 263.285119 448.953833
2024-12-08 8.301519 19.652641 41.341562 83.026228 157.319731 279.122891 486.695108
2024-12-15 7.465894 18.574042 40.600445 84.238700 164.029427 297.658193 529.624666
2024-12-22 5.946020 15.891720 36.686398 79.690238 161.186008 301.758805 552.064485
2024-12-29 5.308453 15.069131 36.397050 82.086814 171.230046 328.697100 614.851874
2025-01-05 4.413162 13.423947 34.123253 80.254680 173.214878 341.782867 655.007309
2025-01-12 4.317349 13.754869 36.166299 87.427662 192.921365 387.484348 754.223404
2025-01-19 3.449982 11.839720 32.842516 82.884907 189.303319 390.784968 779.024960
2025-01-26 3.168619 11.475418 33.071550 86.038387 201.298539 423.542661 858.376071
2025-02-02 2.980730 11.340270 33.832003 90.450642 216.217176 462.686196 951.469236
2025-02-09 2.768414 11.078453 34.230629 94.062419 229.731868 499.940105 1043.023918
2025-02-16 2.441748 10.362699 33.335758 94.511798 236.506139 524.510766 1112.125610
2025-02-23 2.043234 9.283832 31.275607 91.869408 236.263960 535.175841 1155.345585
2025-03-02 1.804060 8.696206 30.473833 92.237806 242.716924 559.585637 1226.237819